Five years ago, a litre of supermarket own-label orange juice cost 76p. Today it costs £1.79 — a rise of 134%. In restaurants, a freshly squeezed glass can set you back £5.30. One journalist was charged £9 for orange juice and lemonade at a small restaurant in Kent. The orange juice alone accounted for £5.30 of the bill. Consumers are, quite literally, being freshly squeezed.
The story behind those prices starts in the orange groves of Brazil, which dominates global supply even more than Saudi Arabia dominates crude oil. Five consecutive years of poor harvests — driven by severe drought and a bacterial disease called citrus greening — devastated the crop. Brazil's 2024 harvest was its worst since 1988, with two thirds of trees in some regions affected. The price of frozen orange concentrate surged from around $1.50 per pound to a record $5.30, briefly hitting $7 at its peak.
Yet as costs have surged, the taste is changing too, with certain manufacturers substituting oranges for mandarins to cut costs. The result is a product that looks the same on the shelf but tastes noticeably different — a quiet downgrade that most shoppers never voted for.
The problem goes beyond a single commodity. Grocery price inflation hit 17.5% in 2023 and, while it eased, it is now climbing again. Overall inflation recently came in at 3.8% — the 12th consecutive month above the Bank of England's 2% target. Supply chain vulnerabilities, extreme weather, packaging regulations, and the lingering effects of Brexit on import tariffs have all compounded the pressure on food prices.
It all prompts the question: are prices set to remain stubbornly high — and should we brace for them staying that way permanently? Industry experts warn that as long as orange supply remains concentrated in one region and climate pressures intensify, there is little reason to expect relief at the checkout anytime soon.
