Jet fuel prices have surged more than 120% since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked eight weeks ago, and the crisis is now threatening to derail summer travel plans for millions of passengers across Europe.
The Gulf region normally supplies around 20% of the jet fuel traded on international markets each day. Europe is particularly reliant on those imports — more than half of its supply typically comes from the Gulf. But with the strait closed, airlines and fuel suppliers have been scrambling to source alternatives, pushing prices to record highs. The UK, as Europe's biggest consumer of jet fuel, is especially exposed, with 65% of its supply coming from abroad and just four refineries still operating domestically.
For airlines, fuel already accounts for 25–30% of operating costs, so the spike has hit profitability hard. Some carriers hedged their fuel purchases in advance, locking in lower prices — but even that strategy offers only partial protection. EasyJet, for example, hedged 80% of its supply at $717 per tonne, yet sourcing the rest at today's prevailing prices cost the airline an extra £25 million in March alone. Unless extra supplies can be found, a lack of fuel could lead to further disruption and cancellations heading into the peak summer holiday period.
Several major airlines have already pared back their schedules. Lufthansa announced it would cut 20,000 flights through October, while Air France KLM, Air Canada and SAS have also trimmed capacity. Fares are rising sharply too — particularly on long-haul routes. A flight from London to Melbourne in June now costs 76% more than it did last year, a steep reduction in capacity having combined with high fuel prices to make tickets a lot more expensive. United Airlines' CEO has said the company will do 'whatever it takes' to pass 100% of fuel cost increases on to passengers.
Industry analysts warn that routes which were only marginally profitable before the crisis are now firmly loss-making. With no clear timeline for the strait reopening, passengers should brace for a summer of higher fares, fewer flights, and real uncertainty.